Character Analysis Of Beloved - 1342 Words

Denver is the daughter of Sethe, the main character in novel Beloved by Toni Morrison. Denver is the most dynamic character in the novel. Denver is a young girl who spends hours alone. As a child, Denver’s dependence on others is an opposing force that she must realize and overcome and she must begin to rely on herself so that she can reach her fullest potential. As the relationship between Sethe and Beloved grows stronger, Denver has opportunities to break free and realize the danger of relying on others, such and Sethe and Beloved. Denver’s dependence on others and her isolation inhibits her from being an independent individual and does not allow Denver to focus on who she is and who she could become until she breaks free. Ever since†¦show more content†¦When the quote says, â€Å"Denver’s imagination produced its own hunger and his own food†. This showed that as time progressed isolation would get worse because she would not have to face her is sues if she could escape them. Throughout Denver’s childhood she would come up against issues that she would push away and ignore. When Nelson Lord asked her about if the stories of what her mother did was true. In Beloved it states, â€Å"she could have laughed when he said it, what pushed him down, but there was no meanness in his face or his voice. Just curiosity. The thing is that left up in her when he asked it what a thing that had been lying there all along. She never went back. The second day she didn’t go† (121). This portrays that Denver being isolated by being pulling out of school. It allowed her to ignore the situation in harbor inside of her as if it didn’t exist. Holding such an influential idea in someone’s head can really affect their state of dependence on others. When Denver started staying home, the manifestation of beloved first begins. She now would just stay at home alone and isolated depending on her mother and the baby gho st Beloved. Beloved is the ghost of Denver sister that was killed by Sethe to protect Beloved from a life of slavery. Throughout the story, Denver’s attachment to Beloved intensifies and she begins toShow MoreRelatedBeloved Character Analysis1122 Words   |  5 PagesIn the book Beloved, Toni Morrison gives the audience, many choices to think about what is really happening in each section to get the point of what’s going on. The audience has to ponder on each character. Let’s take Sethe for example, as a character to mainly focus on. In Beloved,Sethe is a mother to four children and a wife to Halle. Sethe has been through so much ever since the very beginning. She had to make a rough choice about whether she would kill her oldest daughter, Beloved. Sethe endedRead MoreBeloved Character Analysis867 Words   |  4 PagesIn the novel Beloved by Toni Morrison the character Sethe is faced with the traumatic experience of having to return to slavery at Sweet Home, i n order to save her children she attempts to kill them. She succeeds in killing one by cutting the infant’s throat with a hacksaw. This â€Å"rough choice† revolves around the novel on whether or not, the choice was right or wrong. Sethe’s tough choice between the right or wrong in the murder of her child is right and was necessary for her to insure the safetyRead MoreCharacter Analysis Of Toni Morrisons Beloved926 Words   |  4 Pagesday? Beloved is a story written by Toni Morrison about the hardships that lead the protagonist, Sethe, to kill her own daughter, who would later come back from the grave. Sethe is a middle-aged, former slave who has experienced the cruelest, most unjust torment in her life – slavery. She escaped this barbaric life, but when the chance of being taken away comes back, she has to murder her own daughter to save her. Through close examination of the book, movie, and many other character analysis, it isRead MoreAnalysis of Belo ved, by Tony Morrison Essay1629 Words   |  7 Pages Beloved is a novel written by Tony Morrison and is based on the American Civil War. The plot of the novel is based on the effects, consequences and the results of the Civil War. The author uses characters that would effectively bring out the Civil War theme in terms of social circles and occupations in the society. The novel is based on the characters regarded as slaves or have undergone capture, slavery and escaped from their masters (Haskins Haskins 13). The main character in the novel, SetheRead MoreToni Morrison s Beloved And The Ghosts Of Slavery : Historical Recovery1691 Words   |  7 Pagesnovel Beloved, Toni Morrison develops character Beloved as an allegorical figure to embody slavery’s horrific past and the lasting impact that unresolved past trauma has upon the present. Morrison develops the character Beloved to represent all the unremembered and untold stories of slavery and to further the message that we must maintain a collective memory of slavery in order to pursue a hopeful future. Morrison develops Beloved as a character through her interactions with other characters in theRead MoreAnalysis Of Toni Morrison s Beloved1434 Words   |  6 PagesI. SUBJECT Beloved by Toni Morrison opens in Cincinnati, Ohio in 1873 set in the Reconstruction era of American history. Sethe eighteen years ago escaped slavery with her children to live with her mother-in-law, Baby Suggs, in a house on 124 Bluestone Road often referred to simply as 124. The novel unfolds on two different time periods, that of Sethe’s time at Sweet Home plantation as a slave and that of the present. Her qualities of motherhood have overtaken Sethe’s life and have driven away herRead MoreBeloved : A Reconstruction Of Our Past1705 Words   |  7 PagesNovember 20, 2015 Beloved: A reconstruction of our past Beloved by Toni Morrison is a reconstruction of history told by the African American perspective, a perspective that is often shadowed or absent in literature. Her novel presents a cruel demonstration of the horrors endured by slaves and the emotional and psychological effects it created for the African American community. It unmasks the realities of slavery, in which we are presented with the history of each of the characters lives and the memoriesRead MoreToni Morrisons Beloved Essays1058 Words   |  5 Pageshuman nature to uncover the truth? In Toni Morrison’s Beloved, the character Denver uses knowledge to feed her craving in hopes that it will fill the void her mother unsuccessfully tried to satisfy with the blood of the past and too little milk. To understand these truths one must accept that Beloved is a physical representation of the past, Sethe embodies the present, and Denver exemplifies the future. Throughout the novel these three characters interact on a superfic ial level, but each action hasRead MoreBeloved: Critique with New Historicism1749 Words   |  7 Pages Beloved is a Pulitzer Prize winning novel written by Toni Morrison and published in 1987. The story follows Sethe as she attempts to make peace with her present (for her, post Civil War America) and her past as a former slave and the atrocities she suffered at the hands of the benevolent Gardner family. Information given to the readers from different perspectives, multiple characters, and various time periods allows her audience to piece together the history of the family, their lives, asRead MoreThe Underground Railroad By Colson Whitehead1374 Words   |  6 PagesCohen AP Literature Composition Mr. Gordon 5 September 2017 The Underground Railroad by Colson Whitehead: An Analysis (1) Toni Morrison’s Beloved takes place after the Civil War during the Reconstruction era, when the violent oppression of the black race continued, with flashbacks to the horrific trauma of the early 19th century slavery period. In Margaret Atwood’s review of Beloved in The New York Times dated September 13, 1987, many of the events in this novel appear to parallel the themes

Charles Darwin s Theory Of Behavior Genetics - 970 Words

BEHAVIOR GENETICS 2 It is possible to tell where one receives his physical traits from. One can look at a person, then at his parents, and see that he gets his brown hair from his father and blue eyes from his mother. There are other traits that people can receive from their parents that are not as easy to see. The idea that people can receive behavioral traits from one’s parents is the study of behavior genetics. Early Genetics One of the first people to study heritability was Sir Francis Galton. He was inspired by his cousin, Charles Darwin. His research was based around how certain genes were either passed down, or†¦show more content†¦Galton is also credited for creating a mathematical ratio that showed where one got his attributes from, BEHAVIOR GENETICS 3 called the mathematical law of genetics. He believed that â€Å"an average of 1/4 contribution by each parent, and 1/16 by each grandparent, and so on through one’s ancestry, such that the sum of the contribution by all of one’s ancestors approached 1.† (The Embryo Project Encyclopedia). Another key figure in behavior genetics is Gregor Mendel. He studied genetics and heritability, and is known as the â€Å"father of modern genetics†. Mendel used the garden at his monastery to study how â€Å"certain traits in pea plants follows particular patterns† (Gregor Mendel Biography). These studies became the foundation of modern genetics and heritability. By using his pea plants, he was able to determine the existence of dominant and recessive genes. Galton and Mendel were the same age, both born in 1822. During the time of their studies, people believed that traits were â€Å"the diluted blending of whatever traits were present in the â€Å"parents.† † (Gregor Mendel Biography). Mendel was able to disprove this. He showed that genes can stay dormant in one generation, but reappear in the next. The term â€Å"genetics† was not even used until 1906. Mendel did not promote his research, and it was not widely popular. His findings were duplic ated independently years later in 1900.

Cognitivism in Philosophy Essay Sample free essay sample

In this paper I will supply both sides of cognitivism and non-cognitivism and argue that non-cognitivism is superior to cognitivism and that it is besides more credible. I will foremost explicate cognitivism and non-cognitivism and interrupt them down into smaller subdivisions and depict the statements for and against both. Next. I will travel over the points on which cognitivism and non-cognitivism agree and disagree upon. Then. I will travel over some positive and negative statements that go along with cognitivism. After that I will speak about some positives and negatives of non-cognitivism. Finally. I will state you where I stand on the meta-ethics statement of cognitivism and non-cognitivism and why I agree with that theory. First thing I will travel over. and interrupt down cognitivism and non-cognitvism in meta-ethic doctrine. Cognitivism in doctrine is the meta-ethical theory that moral judgements province facts and are either true or false. Moral judgements are. or express provinces of beliefs. A strong cognitivist theory is one which holds moral judgements disposed for rating in footings of truth and falseness. and can be the consequence of cognitively accessing the facts which makes them true. Cognitively measuring is of or refering to the mental procedures of perceptual experience. memory. judgement. and concluding. as contrasted with emotional and picks made by will. Cognitivist theories can be naturalist or non-naturalist. A naturalist believes that moral judgements are true or false by a natural province of personal businesss. A natural province of personal businesss is a province of personal businesss that consists in the case of a natural belongings. Natural belongingss are belongingss of natural scientific disciplines or in psychological science. Non-naturalist think that moral belongingss are non linked to natural belongingss. Non-naturalism bases in resistance to naturalism. which claims that moral footings and belongingss are reducible to non-moral footings and belongingss. Non-Cognitivism provinces that moral judgements express non-cognitive provinces such as emotions or desires. So non-cognitivitism believes that judgements are non capable of being true or fals e. Although it may be true that person have a desire to make something it is non true that desires themselves can be true or false. Following I will travel over the points on which cognitivism and non-cognitivism agree and disagree upon. Both cognitivism and non-cognitivism trade with moral judgement and if an action is right or incorrect. They both trade with stating if an act/action is right or bad. You can non judge an action on being right or bad merely from the pure fact that your beliefs and faith says its incorrect or due to the fact that it was desirable to make or emotionally connected. Cognitivism says that it can be determined by beliefs and is truth-apt and non-cognitivism says that is depends upon emotions and desires which can be neither true nor false. You can non find if someone’s emotions or desires are true or false therefore non-cognitivism is non truth-apt. Cognitivism and non-cognitivism disagree on the logical thinking for an act/action being true or false and besides on the agent being beliefs. or emotions and desires. Now I will travel over some positives and negatives of cognitivis m. Strong cognitivism without moral pragmatism is argued that although moral judgements are disposed to be true or false. and are ever false ( Mackie 1977 Error Theory ) . This is because there are no moral belongingss or facts of this kind required to turn out moral judgements true. Moral mistake theory is a place characterized by two propositions: ( I ) all moral claims are false and ( two ) we have ground to believe that all moral claims are false. Mackie gave two statements for moral mistake theory. The first statement is called the Argument from Queerness. which has moral claims that imply motive internalism. Internalism is the claim that there is an internal and necessary connexion between unfeignedly doing a moral judgement and being motivated to move in the mode prescribed by that judgement. Because motive internalism can be false so are all moral claims. The 2nd statement called the Argument from Disagreement. maintains that any moral claim X requires a ground claim Y. So if killing people was incorrect and true so everybody has a ground non to kill people because it’s incorrect. Even if you find pleasure in killing people and you are suffering when non killing. But if you won’t acquire in problem for killing. so the liquidator has every gr ound to kill. and no ground non to make so. All moral claims are so false. A weak cognitivist theory is one which holds that moral judgements are ( I ) apt for rating in footings of truth and falseness. ( II ) but can non be the consequence of cognitive entree to moral belongingss and province of personal businesss. Weak cognitivism agrees with strong cognitivsm on premiss one but disagrees with premiss two. This rejects moral pragmatism. non by denying the being of moral fact but by denying that those facts are independent of human sentiment. Moral pragmatism is the meta-ethical position which claims that: ( I ) Ethical sentences express propositions. ( II ) some such propositions are true. ( III ) those propositions are made true by nonsubjective characteristics of the universe. independent of subjective sentiment. Since I merely went over some positives and negatives of cognitivism. I will now travel over some positives and negatives of non-cognitivism. Cognitvist claim that moral judgements can show beliefs which being motivated to make something or to prosecute a class of action is ever a affair of a belief and a desire. So if you are motivated to work difficult excess hours because you have the desire to purchase something particular. It is internal but is a fact. Then ( X ) is good. so you are motivated to prosecute the class of action to ( X ) . So if moral judgement expressed a belief. it would hold to be a belief which supported an internal connexion to a desire. It would hold to be a truth because that’s an agent that possesses the belief which possess’ desire. But no belief is needfully connected to desires because beliefs and desires are distinguishable beings and it is impossible to hold necessary connexion between the two. So moral judgements are non truth-apt. Emotivism is a meta-ethical position that claims that ethical sentences do non show propositions but emotional attitudes. In Emotivism a moral statement isn’t literally a statement about the speaker’s feelings on the subject. but expresses those feelings with emotion. When an emotivist says â€Å"murder is wrong† it’s like stating â€Å"down with murder† or merely stating â€Å"murder† while doing a horror-stricken face. or a thumbs-down gesture at the same clip as stating â€Å"murder is wrong† . E motivism watches the manner people use linguistic communication and upholds that a moral judgement expresses the attitude that a individual takes on a peculiar issue. I think there is more to ethics than merely the look of an attitude or an effort to act upon behaviour. I think emotivism needs a better account and set of regulations to follow because non everyone has the same emotions and feelings toward different things. Finally I will state you where I stand on the meta-ethics statement of cognitivism and non-cognitivism. I find non-cognitivsm more credible that cognitivism. Non-cognitivism is a affair of emotions and desires non beliefs. Emotions and desires can non be proven true or false. Feelingss are internal to a individual and can merely be felt by the individual holding the emotions. You do things in life because of desires. Desires drive you to your determinations non beliefs. Beliefs can assist to carry your determination but you have to hold the desire before anything else can and will be done. I could be Christian and my faith believes that abortion is incorrect. but emotionally I couldn’t manage a babe at this age and I donâ €™t have the fundss while I am in school. So. now I have the desire to acquire an abortion. With that being said you can’t state me that my emotions are true or false or that my desires to acquire an abortion are true or false. Therefore. everything in meta-ethics can non be explained nor answered by some agent in nature or in the universe and can’t ever be true or false. Besides. some words have factual significances along with normative constituents that can be used either manner. Where the word might be true but the emotions along with the word can non be proven. Beliefs can’t incorrect or right because different people have different beliefs. Some civilization find it alright to do human forfeits for the Gods above yet other faiths don’t agree with human forfeit and see it as slaying. So beliefs can be true or false but that can non state whether an action is right or incorrect. Some things in doctrine go against the societal norms and convey up inquiries and premises that most people would disapprove or differ with. But philosophical understandings set up premises and counter statements to state whether the thought you have for or against a theory will be accepted or denied by most people. In decision. I provided both sides of cognitivism and non-cognitivism and argue that non-cognitivism is superior to cognitivism and that it is besides more credible. I foremost explained cognitivism and non-cognitivism and broke them down into smaller subdivisions and described the statements for and against both. Then. I went over the points on which cognitivism and non-cognitivism agree and disagree upon. I following went over some positive and negative statements that go along with cognitivism. After that I talked about some positives and negatives of non-cognitivism. Finally. I told you where I stand on the meta-ethics statement of cognitivism and non-cognitivism and why I agree with non-cognitivism over cognitivism. Doctrine is all in what you believe. experience. or want. So how can there perchance be a right or incorrect reply to any inquiry?

List Of Prepositions - The Writers For Hire

PREPOSITION LIST What is a Preposition? A preposition is a word or phrase typically placed before a noun and indicates the relation of that noun to a verb, adjective, or other noun. Richard Lanhams Paramedic Method consists of six steps to create clear and concise copy. The first step is to find and eradicate unnecessary prepositions. But, if you dont know how to spot a preposition, how can you eradicate it? Mrs. Moore, my third-grade teacher, taught me to identify most prepositions by asking the question, Can a cat do it to a box? For example, a cat can go over, by, beyond, behind, around and through a box. This is a quick and easy way to single out most prepositions, but it doesnt work every time. A cat cant go like, subsequent to, or aside from a box, but these are all prepositions. To assist you, Ive put together a list of the most common prepositions in English. Four Types of Prepositions: One-Syllable Prepositions Two-Syllable Prepositions Combined One-Syllable Prepositions Combined Word Prepositions 17 One-Syllable Prepositions: in with like at by on near to from down off through out past up of for 21 Two-Syllable Prepositions: about along below during above among beneath except across around beside inside after before between outside against behind beyond over under 6 Combined One-Syllable Prepositions: into upon without onto within throughout 6 Combined-Word Prepositions: according to out of on account of aside from prior to owing to by means of inside of in front of because of subsequent to as to For those of you that a picture speaks a thousand words, check out the article on the Visual Representation of Prepositions. Return to Main Writing Tips Resource Page

Free Essays on Psychology of a Serial Killer

Psychology of a Serial Killer The nineteen-seventies were an incredible decade. It was a decade of change, one of freedom, a time for great music. It was also an incredible decade for shock, fear and serial killers. John Wayne Gacy, an amateur clown, was a pedophiliac homosexual. He tortured and killed thirty three little boys and stored their remains under his house. David Berkowitz, a.k.a. the Son of Sam, stalked New York City from nineteen-sixty-seven to nineteen-seventy-seven. He claimed to have been following a voice from his dog that told him when and where to kill. Ted Bundy, who is believed to have killed at least thirty-four people, was charged for only three under his own defense- and in fact, he was commended by the judge for his own defense. He was put to death. With the combination of a very powerful media and a society fascinated with gruesome, sadistic crimes, modern serial killers have been put in the spotlight. We are enraptured with serial killers so much, that we pay seven dollars to go see a movie where everyone except the bad guys gets strangled, mutilated, or shot- and enjoy it in some sick way. The media goes out of its way to glamorize murder and terrify the public. We support killers like Charles Manson on Death Row with our tax dollars. In fact, we support them with more than that. About two months ago there was an art show in California entitled: The Death Row Art Show III. Pieces sold for thousands of dollars regardless of their aesthetic appeal, because of the identity of the artists. Serial killers are becoming as popular as rock stars. Serial killers are a development of the industrial world; they really didn't "come about" until the late eighteen-hundreds when society was becoming modernized and the threat of the new age sort of displaced some individuals so much they felt they had to kill to get their point across to society. Jack the Ripper is probably the most notorious killer in history becau... Free Essays on Psychology of a Serial Killer Free Essays on Psychology of a Serial Killer Psychology of a Serial Killer The nineteen-seventies were an incredible decade. It was a decade of change, one of freedom, a time for great music. It was also an incredible decade for shock, fear and serial killers. John Wayne Gacy, an amateur clown, was a pedophiliac homosexual. He tortured and killed thirty three little boys and stored their remains under his house. David Berkowitz, a.k.a. the Son of Sam, stalked New York City from nineteen-sixty-seven to nineteen-seventy-seven. He claimed to have been following a voice from his dog that told him when and where to kill. Ted Bundy, who is believed to have killed at least thirty-four people, was charged for only three under his own defense- and in fact, he was commended by the judge for his own defense. He was put to death. With the combination of a very powerful media and a society fascinated with gruesome, sadistic crimes, modern serial killers have been put in the spotlight. We are enraptured with serial killers so much, that we pay seven dollars to go see a movie where everyone except the bad guys gets strangled, mutilated, or shot- and enjoy it in some sick way. The media goes out of its way to glamorize murder and terrify the public. We support killers like Charles Manson on Death Row with our tax dollars. In fact, we support them with more than that. About two months ago there was an art show in California entitled: The Death Row Art Show III. Pieces sold for thousands of dollars regardless of their aesthetic appeal, because of the identity of the artists. Serial killers are becoming as popular as rock stars. Serial killers are a development of the industrial world; they really didn't "come about" until the late eighteen-hundreds when society was becoming modernized and the threat of the new age sort of displaced some individuals so much they felt they had to kill to get their point across to society. Jack the Ripper is probably the most notorious killer in history becau...

PreACT Practice Tests Where to Find Them and How to Prep

PreACT Practice Tests Where to Find Them and How to Prep SAT / ACT Prep Online Guides and Tips Getting ready to take the PreACT? Then you might be wondering whether you should prep for it- and what resources you can use. Is there a PreACT practice test you can take? What kinds of PreACT resources does ACT, Inc. offer? Keep reading to learn why it’s a good idea to lightly prep for the PreACT, and get a comprehensive list of the best PreACT practice tests and materials you can use in your studying. Why You Should Prep for the PreACT The PreACT was created to act as an ACT practice test for 10th graders. Because your PreACT score does not count toward any grades and is not reported to colleges, you’re generally not expected to prep too hard (if at all) for the exam. That said, it can be a good idea to do some light prep, especially if your ultimate goal is to achieve a high score on the ACT. The PreACT is very similar to the ACT in content and form, so preparing for it essentially gives you a head start on ACT prep. As a result, you might not need to study as hard for the ACT when you take it the following year as an 11th grader. Most importantly, however, prepping for the PreACT is simply a great way to familiarize yourself with the ACT. Since you'll take the PreACT as a 10th grader, you'll learn early on what to expect on the ACT and can thus reduce the pressure you'll likely feel when taking the ACT for the first time. Now that you know why it’s a smart idea to prep a little for the PreACT, what are the best resources you can use in your studying? Let's start with the best of the best: official ACT, Inc. materials. Official PreACT Practice Tests Unfortunately, there are no official PreACT practice tests. In fact, the ACT, Inc. website doesn’t offer any PreACT prep material whatsoever (such as practice questions or content guides). Instead, all it has are some general PreACT-related PDFs and PowerPoints detailing things like the format of the test and why sophomores should take it. The likely reason for this lack of PreACT practice materials is that ACT, Inc. doesn’t want students to feel the need to prep extensively for the PreACT. (Remember, the PreACT is simply a practice test for the ACT, so your score won't count for anything!) Another probable reason is that, because ACT, Inc. already provides test takers with so many materials for the ACT, there’d be no point in making separate PreACT resources. In terms of free ACT materials, ACT, Inc. offers a wide variety of questions and tests- which you can also use for your PreACT prep. But before you use any of these to study for the PreACT, make sure you’re aware of the three main differences between the PreACT and ACT. These are as follows: The PreACT is shorter than the ACT: While the ACT is about three to three and a half hours long (depending on whether you take the optional Writing section), the PreACT is a mere two hours and 10 minutes long. The PreACT is easier than the ACT: Because the PreACT targets 10th graders and the ACT targets 11th and 12th graders, the PreACT uses a slightly easier difficulty than the ACT does. Consequently,the maximum score on the PreACT is 35, compared with 36 on the ACT. The PreACT does not have an essay section:Unlike the ACT, which offers an optional essay section,the PreACT does not contain any such section. Now let’s take a look at the official ACT resources you can use for your PreACT prep, as well as how to use them effectively. Rule #1 for using these resources effectively: don't accidentally feed them to your shredder. Free Official ACT Practice Tests At present, there are six official, full-length ACT practice tests available for free online. Since the ACT hasn’t changed much over the years, all of these tests should be helpful for your studying: ACT Practice Test 2018-19 (Form 74FPRE) ACT Practice Test 2015-16 (Form 72CPRE) ACT Practice Test 2014-15 (Form 67C) ACT Practice Test 2011-12 (Form 64E) ACT Practice Test 2008-09 (Form 61C) ACT Practice Test 2005-06 (Form 59F) The reason a few years are missing from these tests is that ACT, Inc. uses the same practice test for a few years before it releases a new one. For example, the 2015-16 practice test is the exact same as the 2016-17 and 2017-18 practice tests. In order to use these practice tests effectively, take themas if you were taking the real ACT. This means you'll need to take each test in a quiet place without any distractions. Also, it's important to take the entire test in one sitting.This way, you'll get a more accurate reflection of your scoring ability and can begin building up your stamina for both PreACT and ACT test day. Finally, be sure to time yourself in accordance with official ACT time limits.Because the ACT is longer than the PreACT is and contains slightly harder questions, these practice tests will be a little more challenging than the actual PreACT will be. But this isn't a bad thing- in fact, it means you'll be extra prepared for the PreACT! Free Official ACT Practice Questions If you’re looking for individual practice questions instead of practice tests, ACT, Inc. also offers a ton of sample ACT questions on its website. You’ll get the following number of questions for each ACT section: 75 ACT English questions 60 ACT Math questions 48 ACT Reading questions 40 ACT Science questions Altogether, these sample questions form a complete ACT practice test (plus eight extra Reading questions). This is equal to aboutone and a half PreACT tests. What’s nice about this resource is that you can easily skip around to focus on certain sections should you want to target specific skills for the PreACT. Although you can also use these sample questions as a full-length practice test, note that they aren’t available on paper- just online- which will make your practice less realistic. Furthermore, be aware that ACT, Inc. sets up these questions in a slightly bizarre format in which you are shown the correct answers after you answer only a handful of questions. This setup makes it difficult to take the whole test in one sitting (and nearly impossible to use official ACT time limits). Paid Official ACT Practice Tests Aside from the free materials above, ACT, Inc. offers some paid ACT practice tests for those who'd like to squeeze in more official ACT/PreACT practice: The Official ACT Prep Guide 2019-2020:This is the most recent version of the ACT's official prep book. It includes five complete practice tests, as well as 400 additional online questions (some of which are reused from the free resources above).While you won’t get much content help with this guide, it’s an excellent resource for additional practice tests. It costs about $23 on Amazon. ACT Online Prep Program: This official online program offers onecompletely unique, full-length ACT practice test.The actual prep part of the program isn’t that helpful, so it’s best to use this just for the practice test. The program costs $39.95. These next resources are as free as this escaped chicken feels. Free Unofficial PreACT Practice Tests Similar to how there are no official PreACT practice tests, there are no unofficial PreACT practice tests available for free online.Because the PreACT is a practice ACT and is so similar to the ACT, most test-prep companies and websites see no point in creating separate PreACT practice tests. So what can you use instead? Luckily, there are tons of free unofficial ACT practice tests you can use for PreACT prep. As is the case with all prep materials, some of these practice tests are good quality, and some aren’t so great. Therefore, it's best toprioritize official ACT materials. In addition, remember that since these are ACT practice tests- not PreACT tests- you can expect there to be more questions that are a little harder than what you’ll see on the PreACT. Below are our picks for the best unofficial ACT practice tests you can use in your PreACT prep, as well as tips for using each resource effectively. Ivy Global Ivy Global’s ACT practice test is by far one of the most realistic unofficial ACT tests available for free online. Visually, it looks almost identical to an official ACT practice test. Unlike other unofficial tests, which are typically only available online, this resource is a downloadable PDF, meaning that you can take it on paper- just as you will for the actual PreACT and ACT. Pros Most questions are very similar to those you’ll see on the ACTin terms of both quality and difficulty. The test is completely free to download and use- you don’t need to make an account or provide any personal information in order to access it. Because the test is a PDF, you can print it out and take it on paper- the same way you’ll take the PreACT (and eventually ACT). This ensures you’ll have realistic test-taking practice. Cons There are no answer explanations for the test; instead, all you get isan answer key (which is included with the test). This lack of guidance makes it difficult to determine exactlywhy you got certain questions wrong. How to Use This Resource Effectively Because this resource is one of the best unofficial ACT practice tests out there, I recommend taking it in its entirety as you would with an official practice test. Again, you'll want torecreate a realistic test-taking setting bytaking it ina quiet room and following all official ACT time limits. Finally, remember that this test still isn't as good as an official practice test, so only take it once you’ve exhausted all official ACT resources. Kaplan Kaplan- a pretty big name in the test-prep world- offers one free full-length ACT practice test when you sign up for an account on their website. This test is only offered on certain dates and at specific times, so check that the time you choose works with your schedule before registering. Pros Kaplan is known for having somewhat easier ACT practice questions and generally targets those who are new to the test. While this would be a con for those prepping for the ACT, it’sa huge plus for those prepping for the PreACT. Because the PreACT is supposed to be a little easier than the ACT is, this lower difficulty level actually works in your favor! Along with the test itself, you’ll get a breakdown of your results and an overview of which skills and areas you could improve. This is useful for figuring out what you should focus on in your PreACT prep. Cons You have to sign up for an account, which is a little annoying, especially if you don’t plan to utilize Kaplan’s other services. The free test is only offered at certain times and on certain days, meaning there’s very little flexibility in when you can take the practice test. The practice test is offered online, so the test-taking experience won’t be that realistic (both the PreACT and ACT are given on paper, not via a computer). How to Use This Resource Effectively If you’ve already taken all official ACT practice tests and the Ivy Global one but still want additional PreACT practice, this is a helpful test to take, particularlyif you'd like to know the specific areas you should zero in on in your prep. Additionally, make sure you’ve looked at your schedule ahead of time so that nothing will interfere with the time of the free test you sign up for. If possible, try to sign up for a morning ACT practice test,since that’s the time you’ll most likely be taking the PreACT at school. I know you hate getting up early, but I promise it'll help you feel more prepared for the PreACT! The Princeton Review Like Kaplan, The Princeton Review- another popular test-prep company- offers a free online ACT practice testwhen you sign up for an account on their website. Pros The Princeton Review is known for making conceptually easier ACT questions- but this will work in your favor since the PreACT is slightly easier than the ACT is. The free practice test can be taken at any time, so it’s pretty convenient. Once you finish taking the test, you’ll get a score report that goes over your strengths and weaknesses. This information is particularly helpful if you hope to eventually score highly on the ACT as well. Cons You have tosign up for an account in order to access the free test. Doing so automatically signs you up to receive emails from The Princeton Review; however, you can disable this at any time. Because the test is an online test, you won’t get that realistic test-taking experience you’d get with a paper test. How to Use This Resource Effectively Like the Kaplan test above, I suggest taking this test only after you’ve exhausted all official ACT resources and the (unofficial) Ivy Global PDF. Since you can take this test anytime, make sure to carve out at least four hours for it (i.e., the approximate length of the ACT). Also, try to take it in the morning, as most schools administer the PreACT during the first half of the school day. Finally, don't forget to use the timed feature when you take the test; this will help you get used to the pressure of testing under time limits (recall, though, that the PreACT is shorter than the ACT). Bonus:PrepScholar’s List of the Best ACT Practice Tests For even more ACT practice tests you can use in your PreACT prep, check out our extensive guide to the best ACT practice tests.In this guide, we introduce a combination of official and unofficial resources for ACT practice tests, some of which are free and some of which aren't. We also offer a summary of each resource to give you an idea of how helpful it’ll be for your ACT (or PreACT) prep. This article shares some overlap with the resources above, so be sure to look for those you haven’t yet tried. Remember that those resources containing easier ACT questions will be more useful (and more relevant) for your PreACT prep. At the same time, it's OK to avoid any resources that mostly target high scorers on the ACT, since their questions will be much more difficult than those on the PreACT (and possibly even the ACT!). Paid Unofficial PreACT Practice Test Although there are no free unofficial PreACT resources available, there is one paid PreACT practice test resource you can use:a prep book by Mometrix called PreACT Secrets Study Guide: PreACT Test Review for the PreACT Exam. Unlike the resources above, this is an entire book that includes a ton of PreACT practice questions, in addition to a full-length PreACT practice test (finally, not an ACT practice test!). Pros Unlike the other unofficial resources above, which are all geared specifically toward the ACT, this book targets the PreACT itself. Therefore, all the guidance and questions it offers are more similar to what you’ll see on the PreACT (versus the slightly harder ACT). It’s the only resource that contains a full-length PreACT practice test (instead of an ACT practice test).So if you're looking for something similar to the actual PreACT you’ll be taking, this resource is an ideal one to use. Unlike with ACT practice tests, you don’t have to take into account any format differences such as time limits and the number of questions. Cons The overall content review is really not that great. Most of the test-taking tips and section overviews aren’t detailed enough to be useful. This is especially concerning when we consider the fact that those taking the PreACT are completely new to this type of standardized test. The book’s got a lot of inaccuracies. For example, it mentions test centers in its tips section, even though only schools (not test centers!) offer the PreACT. Similarly, it talks about an essay section on the PreACT- but there isn’t one! It’s a pretty expensive book, currently selling for around $37 on Amazon. Since you can get loads of free ACT practice materials that are a lot more accurate (even though they're for the ACT and not the PreACT specifically), this price ultimately doesn’t seem worth it. How to Use This Resource Effectively Even though this is one of the only (if not the only) PreACT practice test resource out there, I don’t recommend buying it. With its multitude of basic inaccuracies and lack of helpful content review, I honestly don’t think it’s worth the $37 price tag. That said, if you’re really, really interested in buying it and want PreACT materials (instead of all ACT materials), go ahead and buy it. Just be aware that you’re only using it for the full-length PreACT practice test it offers, as the content review and tips aren’t that helpful (or even relevant). Taking the PreACT: 4 Essential Tips for Test Day As you know, the PreACT is a practice test for the ACT that's meant to help sophomores get a feel for the form and content of the ACT. Even though your PreACT score doesn't count for anything, it can be helpful to know a few key test-taking skills for test day. This way you won't simply do well on the PreACT but can also get more comfortable with the types of strategies you’ll eventually need for the ACT (or SAT). Below, we go over our top four test-taking tips for the PreACT (you can alsocheck out our ACT version for even more tips). #1: Pace Yourself One very important tip to remember is to pace yourself. Doing this ensures you won’t spend too much time on a single question or move too quickly and end up making careless mistakes. The PreACT contains a total of four sections: English, Math, Reading, and Science. Each section has a different number of questions in it as well as a different time limit. Here is an overview of approximately how long you’ll have per question on each PreACT section: PreACT Section Total Time # of Questions Time per Question 1. English 30 minutes 45 40 seconds 2. Math 40 minutes 36 67 seconds 3. Reading 30 minutes 25 (with 3 passages) 72 seconds 4. Science 30 minutes 30 60 seconds Source: 2017-18 PreACT Administration Manual As you can see, the amount of time you’ll have per question on each section varies. You’ll get the most time per question on the Reading section (72 seconds) and the least amount of time per question on the English section (40 seconds). By being aware of these timing differences, you can effectively avoid wasting time on one question at the beginning of a section and instead use that time to focus on other easier questions. In other words, skipping around on each section to do the easier questions first is perfectly OK- and even recommended! #2: Answer Every Question Like the ACT, there is no point penalty on the PreACT.Your score for each section, as well as your composite score, are all calculated based only on the questions you got right. Here's how PreACT scoring works: for every section, you earn one raw point for each right answer. These points are then converted into a scale score on the final 1-35 score scale. So what does this mean for your test-taking strategy? Because you won’t lose any points for wrong answers, try toanswer every single question on the test. Even if you’re running out of time on a section or have no clue what the correct answer to a question is, go ahead and guess! Most PreACT questions have four answer choices (Math questions have five), so you’ll always have a 20-25% of getting a question right, even if you just randomly select an answer. Who knows, you might get lucky and get every question you guessed right! Unless you're me. #3: Skim the Passages on Reading The PreACT Reading section contains three passages and 25 questions, and has a time limit of 30 minutes. This gives you about 72 seconds to answer each Reading question. But this time per question doesn’t take into account the time you’ll need to read each passage. While most students think they’re required to read the passage in its entirety, this can actually eat up a lot of your time (on both the PreACT and ACT). Instead, it’s far better to skim each passage. This not only saves you time overall but also allows you to spend more time tackling the most challenging questions. As we discuss in our guide to choosing an effective reading strategy for the ACT, here’s how you should approach passages on the PreACT: Read the small blurb at the beginning of the article to get a sense of what the passage will be about Choose one of two possible passage-reading strategies: Option A: Read the questions first and then skim the passage Option B: Skim the passage first and then read the questions Option A is a highly effective method that lets you look for the answers to the questions while you skim the passage. In other words, since you're already familiar with the questions and what they’re asking, you can quickly skim the passage to find those answers. Option B can be very effective, too, particularly if you find it difficult to read the questions before you know anything about the passage they're referring to. Ultimately, it doesn't matter which passage-reading strategy you decide to use- as long as it's one that works well for you and will help you get the PreACT/ACT score you want. I recommend trying out both strategies with official practice ACT Reading tests to see which one suits you better. Whichever method gives you a higher Reading score should be the one you use for the PreACT (and ACT). #4: Plug In Answers and Numbers on Math If you’re stuck on a PreACT Math question because you can’t remember a certain formula or don’t know how to approach it, don’t give up- instead, try plugging in answers and numbers to see if you can find the correct answer that way. But what exactly are these two strategies? Here’s a basic overview: Plug in answers:With this strategy, you'll plug each answer choice into the problem (usually an equation or inequality) to see which one yields the correct result. All Math answer choices are arranged in the order of smallest value to highest value, so you can save time by always starting with the middle answer choice (C or H).This tells you whether you need to work your way up or down to get a smaller or bigger value. Plug in numbers: Use this strategy when you get a question dealing withmultiple variables (i.e., unknown numbers typically represented by letters or symbols). To use it, simply replace all unknown variables with real numbers. This makes the problem easier to solve by letting you work with actual numbers instead of unknown values. For more tips on how to use these two strategies, as well as examples of practice questions, take a look at our guides to plugging in answers and plugging in numbers. Recap: The Best PreACT Practice Test Resources As we've shown you,there simply aren’t that many test-prep materials created solely for the PreACT.That said, you can still prep effectively for the test by taking advantage of an array of ACT practice tests and questions. As with any test prep, it’s best to start with official practice materials (in this case, those created by ACT, Inc.). This ensures you’ll have realistic and highly effective PreACT practice. For additional PreACT practice, feel free to use any of theunofficial ACT practice tests listed above. However, note that because these resources are unofficial, their quality won’t be nearly as high as that of official ACT materials. If you've combed through all the ACT resources listed above and are still dying for something that specifically targets the PreACT, your only option is PreACT Secrets Study Guide. However, with a high price tag of around $50 and tons of inaccuracies, this prep book really isn't worth buying. Even if you've studied hard, you'll still need to know some key test-taking strategies so you can get a high PreACT (and eventually ACT) score. Here are the four tips to keep in mind on test day: Pace yourself, and don't forget that the number of seconds you'll have per question varies with each section of the test Answer every question, even if you have to guess on some For Reading, skim the passages- don't attempt to carefully read each one as this will eat up your time For Math, plug in answers and numbersif there are too many variables or you aren't sure how to solve a problem With that, I wish you the best of luck on the PreACT! What’s Next? Want to learn more about the PreACT? Check out our comprehensive guide to the PreACT test, and learn when you can take the exam (coming soon). Looking for more ACT study materials you can use in your PreACT prep?Take a look at our top picks for ACT prep books, ACT prep websites, and ACT apps, and get advice on how to use them. Want to improve your ACT score by 4+ points? Download our free guide to the top 5 strategies you need in your prep to improve your ACT score dramatically.

Strategic management Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Strategic management - Coursework Example The idea involves detailed analysis as well as analytical actions in order to facilitate the organisations to attain their expected business objectives. In strategic management, the analysis of internal as well as external factors of an organisation is considered to be the primary factors (Amason, 2010). Once the internal as well as external factors are determined, then the management of an organisation has to make strong decisions on proper implementation of those factors for sustainable growth of the business (Gregory & et. al., 2005). McDonald’s has been proudly serving to deliver its different products to the customers since the year 1955. Today, McDonald’s is regarded as one of the world’s best fast food retail chain (McDonald’s, 2012). In recent times, the company established its restaurants in around 100 nations. Consequently, it generates huge amount of revenue by performing in the international market with increased expansion of restaurants. It ha s been observed that McDonald’s is operating 33,510 restaurants throughout the world till the end of the year 2011 (McDonald’s Corporation, 2011). The company has been committed to provide the best services to its customers. McDonald’s execute certain significant policies as well as relevant strategies that enable it to expand the size of the business at large (McDonald’s, 2012). The vision statement of the company is to become the world’s top fast food retail chain as well as the best service provider in the similar industry (Scribd Inc., 2012). McDonald’s has proved itself as an integral part of the communities through its social involvement such as organising youth sports, inspiring the society by organising events as well as conducting local charities (McDonald’s, 2012). Moreover, its effective as well as powerful distribution channel enables it to serve quality product to its customers (McDonald’s, 2009). In this paper, Mc Donald’s resources as well as capabilities and its assessment based on the theory of strategic management will be taken into concern. Moreover, the competitive advantage aligning with the company’s core resources and competencies will also be portrayed in the paper. Resources and Capabilities of McDonald’s Organisational resources as well as capabilities are often viewed to be the main factors that are responsible for assisting the organisations to raise their competitive advantages. The core resources of an organisation can be identified as tangible as well as intangible resources. These resources are the major components that develop the organisational strategies. In this similar context, tangible resources represent financial assets, technological means as well as organisational infrastructure. On the other hand, intangible resources signify the aspects relating to human resource, innovation as well as goodwill (Fogleman, n.d.). McDonald’s serves signi ficant portion of customers on regular basis through its several high demand products. The different products of the company are served to near about 119 countries throughout the globe by engaging substantial number of employees. It has been viewed that the company has been preparing effective business strategies for expanding its business in certain parts of South-Asian region. McDonald’

Project Management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 12

Project Management - Essay Example There is no central employee record system and this has affected the decision making time, employee training, compensation and scheduling of work force within the whole company. Moreover, an external party is managing its workers’ compensation (Dreher & Dougherty, 2001). We are requested to analyze this system and create a single application that helps in data management and reduces the time required for decision making and remuneration of employees (Apollo Group, Inc., 2008). Riordan Manufacturing will have to centralize its human resource management at its headquarters. The human resource manager will be responsible for all activities of all employees of the company. To get this application, the company will have to spend a moderate amount of money and also train its human resource employees on how to use it. A central data management will reduce the cost of hiring human resource in all its locations. This is so because few employees will be needed to operate this software (Dreher & Dougherty, 2001). Another advantage for Riordan Manufacturing is that the time needed for dispute resolution and human resource decision making will be drastically reduced and thus create efficiency to the company. In the old system, each task takes an extra cost and time because of the number of employees employed in each segment. There is also a breakdown or distortion of information due to the length of communication channels. The new system will solve these problems by increasing efficiency and speed in the processes involved (Dreher & Dougherty, 2001). The critical path is 5 days and passes through the output, central human resource system, tax remittance and output. This is the shortest time taken to complete the tasks compared to other paths in the company. The time take between the output and central human resource system is 3 days, 1 day between central

Communication and Its Importance in Creating Conflict Essay Example for Free

Communication and Its Importance in Creating Conflict Essay Conflict is essential in all works of fiction, whether it might a simple disagreement in a marriage or internally trying to deal with guilt. The real life situations of Interpreter of Maladies connect the problems with communication with conflict that will arise. In Interpreter of Maladies, communication problems in the short stories â€Å"A Temporary Matter†, â€Å"This Blessed House†, and â€Å"Interpreter of Maladies† resulted in conflict. In â€Å"A Temporary Matter†, the conflict in was the game that Shoba and Shukamar played, referring to the revealing one truth about oneself when there were not any lights, and the game where they were hiding from each other, hoping to avoid awkward encounters. This was an internal conflict from Shukumar’s perspective because Shukumar was thinking of how to play his next move in order to effectively restore the relationship. †Now he had to struggle to say something that interested he, something that made her look up from her plate, or from proofreading files.† Shukumar thought the purpose of the game where the couple would share previously unknown facts was that it would restore their relationship. Shukumar thought the game was used in order to reconcile and reform the marriage. But he was gravely mistaken. Shoba used this game to tell him that she was moving out. â€Å"It sickened Shukumar, knowing that she had spent these past evening s preparing for a life without him.† (21). The internal conflict in Shukumar was a result of miscommunication on Shoba’s part. She rarely communicated her thoughts and feelings after the stillbirth, and Shukumar took this as a sign to not talk. This resulted in their relationship slowing fading, and finally to the point of avoidance. In â€Å"This Blessed House† Sanjeev and Twinkle had many fights throughout the story because of the Christian artifacts that were laid throughout the house. Sanjeev believed it was impractical, since both he and Twinkle were not Christian. When he kept on insisting on eradicating the religious objects, Twinkle insisted on keeping them. While Sanjeev had a practical and logical reason of why, he never effectively compromised with Twinkle, and kept on believing that he was right. And without the proper compromise and communication, it resulted in Sanjeev not understanding Twinkle’s emotions. He was quite surprised when he saw Twinkle cry in the bath. â€Å"Oh God, please, Twinkle, I didn’t mean it.† But Finally in the end, they reached a compromise and managed to continue on to the party. But the conflict arose because of Sanjeev’s inconsideration and not communicating his thoughts along with listening to Twinkle’s approach. â€Å"In the end they settled on a compromise: the statue would be placed in a recess at the side of the house, so that it wasn’t obvious to passerby, but was still clearly visible to all who came.† Even though they come to a compromise, it was after Sanjeev made Twinkle cry, which is a poor example of effective communication. In â€Å"Interpreter of Maladies†, Mr. Karpasi was under a delusion that Mrs. Das was interested in him. The conflict was Mr. Karpasi’s internal struggle interpreting Mrs. Das’s actions and determining whether she liked him or not. â€Å"As he stole glances in the rear view mirror, wrapping elastic bands around Tina’s hair, he wondered how he might make this tour a little longer.† He stated that he was an interpreter in the story. Mrs. Das inferred that he was some sort of psychologist or therapist that would cure her of her guilt that she had been holding in. However she was mistaken, Mr Karpasi essentially was a translator for a doctor. â€Å"†¦But many people do not speak Gujarati in this area, including the doctor. And so the doctor asked me to work in his office interpreting what the patients say.† He did not process any knowledge in the field of which Mrs. Das was interested in. When Mrs. Das was asked by Mr. Karpasi about why she told him about the illegitimate child, Mrs. Das said, â€Å"Well don’t you have anything to say? I thought that it as your job.† Mr. Karpasi responded with, â€Å"My job is to give tours, Mrs. Das.† Mrs. Das continued with, â€Å"Not that. Your other job. As an interpreter.† Mrs. Karpasi answered with, â€Å"But we do not face a language barrier. What need is there for an interpreter?† Mrs. Das completely misunderstood Mr. Karpasi in what he meant as an interpreter. She was only interested in Mr. Karpasi because she believed that Mr. Karpasi would cure of her guilt. On the contrary, Mr. Karpasi thought that Mrs. Das was interested in him in an attracting fashion. In Interpreter of Maladies, communication problems in the short stories â€Å"A Temporary Matter†, â€Å"This Blessed House†, and â€Å"Interpreter of Maladies† resulted in conflict. In â€Å"A Temporary Matter†, Shoba gave Shukumar the impression that she was trying to reform their marriage when her true purpose was to end it. She also is responsible for their avoidance with each other. In â€Å"This Blessed House†, Sanjeev was oblivious to Twinkle’s connections to the Mary statue, and kept on pressing his belief. This resulted in a fight in which Sanjeev finally realized his misdemeanor. In â€Å"Interpreter of Maladies†, Mr. Karpasi miscommunicated what his job was, which then resulted Mrs. Das giving him a problem that he could not solve. Mrs. Das regarded Mr. Karpasi with interest because she believed that Mr. Karpasi can help her. However this resulted in her humiliation when she told Mr. Karpasi her biggest secret that she believed he could resolve. Communication is essential to the everyday life of humans. A small mistake in communication can destroy a relationship or start an unwanted situation. It is essential that people would communicate in order to create a more stable relationship.

The Story of the Crusades Essay -- Essays Papers

The Story of the Crusades The Story of the Crusades is a book that was written in 1963 by Alfred Duggan. The book’s title tells you what the book is about, the Crusades. The book follows the Western Christian’s perspective on the 200 year event, from 1095 to 1291. It starts out setting up the plot (which most good books do), then sets up the plot, and keeps on setting up the plot. The book is very slow at the beginning, then slowly starts to move but not fast enough. If I were rating this book on how exciting it was, I would not forget to count the number of times I almost fell asleep trying to read it. But the Crusades have always interested me, so I couldn’t give up on the book, The book covers all of the crusades, but it also covers all of the down time between the crusades, which is not interesting to read. I am sure it is very important to know about, but a book should be fun also, considering its written as a story, and not as the Bible. There were interesting parts though. Especially During the 3rd crusade, I never learned about the Muslim assassins who played a big part. Also I found it interesting to read more information about King Richard who was kidnapped by The Duke of Austria. Another interesting part of the book was the attitude the author took on the First Crusade. He named the Chapter â€Å"The Great Lords Ride Out†. Mr. Duggan portrays the first crusade a lot different than I have been taught in the past. The way I’ve been taught about the C...

Forecasting Hotel Arrivals and Occupancy

Abstract Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy is an important component in hotel revenue management systems. In this paper we propose time series approach for the arrivals and occupancy forecasting problem. In this approach we simulate the hotel reservations process forward in time. A key step for the faithful emulation of the reservations process is the accurate estimation of its parameters. We propose an approach for the estimation of these parameters from the historical data. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan.The proposed model gives satisfactory result. 1. Introduction Forecasting in the hotel industry is very useful for estimating or calculating a variety of factors that can assist management in strategic decision making. Given the perishable nature of tourism services, there exists an important need to obtain accurate forecasts of future business activity (Archer, 1987; Athiyaman & Robertso n, 1992). Certainly, forecasting plays a crucial role in tourism planning both in the short and the long run. However, from a merely practical point of view, tourism industry is much more interested in getting good predictions in the short-term.Needs in the hospitality, transport and accommodation sectors have become more short-term in focus, and they can change rapidly with changing market demand. Therefore, increasing the accuracy of short-term forecasts is an essential requirement to improve the managerial, operational, and tactical decision-making process especially in the private sector. Because of the large number of existing hotels, any possible improvement in the methodology will amount to potentially very large overall savings. In recent years there has been rapid growth in the inflow of tourists to Azerbaijan.Declaring 2011 the Year of Tourism in the country has opened up new opportunities for further development in this field. In a modernizing Azerbaijan construction of h otel complexes, a high level of service has become widespread. The number of hotels in Azerbaijan is growing every year as the number of foreign tourists visiting the country. In 2002, the country had 70 hotels and hotel complexes, and visiting tourists were just over 800 thousand, now number over 500 hotels, and tourists – more than half a million. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism 40 new hotels is currently under construction in Azerbaijan.Today, the hotel fund of the republic consists of 31 thousand places against 9000 in 2002. As a result of the state program of tourism development up to 2016 capacity of hotels and recreation areas should be increased to 150 thousand. At the present time in Baku, mainly the business -and congress tourism is developed, which participants are only five-star hotels. Therefore in Baku there is a lack of hotels class â€Å"three or four† stars with reasonable prices and good service. Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Aze rbaijan is preparing a special offer for construction in the city hotels of different categories.There are currently functioning in Azerbaijan 499 hotels and hotel-type facilities. 312 of them operate on the basis of licenses issued by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and 187 – is illegal. Overall, about 80 hotels and facilities for recreation in the country have received the category of â€Å"star†. Today in Azerbaijan exist 17 five-star hotels, 13 of them – in Baku. 34 four-star hotels, 21 of which are located in Baku, the rest – in the regions. Of the 27 three-star hotel 18 is also located in Baku. In addition the republic has 6 two-star hotels.From five-star hotels the most popular are The Boutique Palace Hotel, Hilton Baku, Excelsior Hotel Baku, Grand Hotel Europe Baku, Palace Hotel Baku and others, among four-star hotels – The Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Riviera Hotel Baku, Austin Hotel Baku, Ramada Baku, Hyatt Regency Baku, etc. , three-star ho tels – Sea Port Hotel, Sun Rise Hotel Baku, Metropol the Hotel, Azcot Hotel, two-star hotels – Baku Palace Guesthouse, Baleva, Royal Guest House Baku, and finally one star hotel – Nur-2 hotel. So as we conduct research based on data about The Ganjali Plaza Hotel, should review it further.In 2008 industrial – commercial company â€Å"Ganjali † completed and put into operation the hotel â€Å"Ganjali Plaza. † The hotel is centrally located opposite the boulevard, within walking distance of the city's attractions and shops. The area of 4000 sqm hotel. An eight-story building with elevators there is. The hotel Ganjali Plaza handed comfortable accommodation to services of lodgers. This 4-star hotel is located in Baku city centre, a 10-minute walk from the Old Town district and the Heydar Aliyev Palace. The Ganjali Plaza Baku offers free Wi-Fi and elegant interiors.The classic-style rooms at the Ganjali Plaza Hotel feature stylish wooden furniture and floors. All rooms are air-conditioned and include satellite TV and a private bathroom with bath. Breakfast is provided each morning at the Ganjali Plaza. Guests are also welcome to relax in the bar with its rich wooden and glass furnishings, or in the fitness room. Reception at the Ganjali Plaza is open 24/7, and includes a tour desk and ticket service. Shuttle services and car rental are also available. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for Ganjali Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan. . Methodology In this topic the data set is discussed and the time series models used in this study are briefly explained. The data set Figure 1: The time series plot of the monthly guest arrivals data from January 2011 to December 2011. The time series plot from January 2011 to December 2011 consisting of a total of 12 monthly observations is shown in Figure 1. From the plot, it is clear that tourist arrivals has generally increased and decreased time by time and obviously it is not a stationary time series. There also appears to have some sort of seasonal pattern in it.There are also some unexpected dips and some events may have contributed to a drop in guest arrivals at these points of time. 3. 1. Time series In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a  time series  is a sequence of  data points, measured at successive times. Time series  analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting  is the use of a  model  to predict future values based on previously observed values.Time series are very frequently plotted via  line charts. In  evenly spaced  time series, the time intervals between data points are all equal, while in  unevenly spaced  time series the intervals differ. Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from other common da ta analysis problems, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations. A time series model will generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations further apart.In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than from future values. Time-Series Behaviors * Trend * Seasonality * Cycles * Irregular variations * Random variation * Trend Trend A long-term upward or downward movement in data. * Population shifts * Changing income Seasonality Short-term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar or time of day. Restaurants, service call centers, and theaters all experience seasonal demand CycleWavelike variations lasting more than one year. These are often related to a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions Random Variation Residual variati on that remains after all other behaviors have been accounted for Irregular variation Due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior * Labor strike * Weather event 3. 2. Time-Series Forecasting – Averaging These Techniques work best when a series tends to vary about an average. Averaging techniques smooth variations in the data They can handle step changes or gradual changes in the level of a series Techniques: Moving average * Weighted moving average * Exponential smoothing Later I will give a brief overview of techniques used in this study in the rich and rapidly growing field of time series modeling and analysis. 3. 3. Moving Average or Smoothing Techniques Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of random variation. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect due to random variation. An often-used technique in industry is â€Å"smoothing†. This technique, when properly applied, reveals more clearly the underly ing trend, seasonal and cyclic components.There are two distinct groups of smoothing methods †¢Averaging Methods †¢Exponential Smoothing Methods Exponential Smoothing is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Single Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to the observations are the same and are equal to 1/N.In exponential smoothing, however, there are one or more smoothing parameters to be determined (or estimated) and these choices determine the weights assigned to the observations. 3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel Case Study We applied the proposed forecasting model to the problem of forecasting the arrivals and the occupancy of the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a detailed case study. In collaboration with the hotel, we apply our proposed forecasting model to the hotel’s data. The Hotel Data We have applied the proposed forecasting model on this data of the Ganjali Plaza Hotel. 2011 months| Occupancy(Person)| jan| 137| feb| 108| ar| 186| apr| 117| may| 104| jun| 143| jul| 149| aug| 157| sep| 166| oct| 142| nov| 129| dec| 130| Table1. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel monthly guest arrivals data from January 2011 to December 2011. We have obtained a full set of data covering the period from jan-2011 until dec-2011. The set of the data include only the reservations. We forecast a month ahead using the last twelve months of the data. In next section we present the results of our study. 4. 4. Results Figure2. shows the moving average model for the case of one month forecasting. Figure2. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Moving Average method. 011 year| occupancy(person)| Moving Average| Standard deviation| jan| 137 | #N/A| #N/A| feb| 108| #N/A| #N/A| mar| 186| 143. 6666667| #N/A| apr| 117| 137| #N/A| may| 104| 135. 6666667| 32. 63377028| jun| 143| 121. 3333333| 24. 98147462| jul| 149| 132| 24. 22961151| aug| 157| 149. 6666667| 16. 45420131| sep| 166| 157. 3333333| 11. 8023852| oct| 142| 155| 9. 964752696| nov| 129| 145. 6666667| 13. 189502| dec| 130| 133. 6666667| 12. 3857744| jan| | 129. 5| 9. 852617625| Table2. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Moving Average method. Spreadsheet Showing Results Using n = 3.Figure3. represents the exponential smoothing model for the case of one month forecasting. Figure3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Exponential Smoothing method. 2011 year| occupancy(person)| Exponential Smoothing| jan| 137| #N/A| #N/A| feb| 108| 137| #N/A| mar| 186| 125. 4| #N/A| apr| 117| 149. 64| #N/A| may| 104| 136. 584| 43. 12280758| jun| 143| 123. 5504| 43. 96758903| jul| 149| 131. 33024| 28. 89852128| aug| 157| 138. 3 98144| 24. 16763962| sep| 166| 145. 8388864| 18. 58795672| oct| 142| 153. 9033318| 18. 83896641| nov| 129| 149. 1419991| 17. 6449977| dec| 130| 141. 0851995| 17. 83124541| jan| | 136. 6511197| 14. 94736414| | | | | damping factor=0. 6| Table3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Exponential Smoothing method. Spreadsheet Showing Results Using w = 0. 4(damping factor=1-w=0. 6). 4. Conclusion In this paper we have proposed model for hotel arrivals and occupancy forecasting using time series method. We considered as a case study the Ganjali Plaza Hotel of Baku, Azerbaijan. The proposed forecasting model achieves good forecasting accuracy and beats other competing forecasting models.In other words, it estimates the whole picture of what will happen in the future for all processes, and in a probabilistic way. Table 1. and Figure1. show the different seasonal periods for the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, as determined by the managers. We used these data to determine th e forecast for January 2012 occupancy rate. For this purpose we implemented two techniques of time series methodology such as exponential smoothing and moving average method. References 1. Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. (2002), Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting, 2nd Edition, Springer-Verlag, New York. 2.Andrawis, R. , Atiya, A. F. , 2009. A new Bayesian formulation for Holt’s exponential smoothing. Journal of Forecasting 28, 218–234. 3. Andrew, W. , Cranage, D. , Lee, C. , 1990. Forecasting hotel occupancy rates with time series models: an empirical analysis. Hospitality Research Jour- nal 14, 173–181. 4. Chow, W. S. , Shyu, J. -C. , Wang, K. -C. , 1998. Developing a forecast sys- tem for hotel occupancy rate using integrated ARIMA models. Journal of International Hospitality, Leisure Tourism Management 1, 55–80. 5. Franses, P. H. , 1998. Time Series Models for Business and Economic Fore- casting.Cambridge University Press. 6. Gardner, E. S. , 2006. Exponential smoothing: The state of the art Part II. International Journal of Forecasting 22, 637–666. 7. Hyndman, R. J. , Koehler, A. B. , Ord, J. K. , 2008. Forecasting with Exponen- tial Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer Series in Statistics. 8. Kimes, S. E. , 1999. Group forecasting accuracy for hotels. Journal of the Operational Research Society 50, 1104–1110. 9. Weatherford, L. R. , Kimes, S. E. , January 2003. A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management. International Journal of Forecast- ing 99 (19), 401–415.

Night World : Spellbinder Chapter 14

Every week passed more or less quietly. Grandma Harman came home, her cough better. She didn't seem to notice anything different about Thea. Night came earlier, and everyone at school talked about parties and costumes. The air got colder and there was an announcement that the old gym would be opened for Halloween. Thea heard that Randy Marik had been moved to a psychiatric hospital and was in intensive therapy. He was making some progress. Thea and Eric worked every day on their plan. The only real excitement came the night when Thea walked in, sat on Blaise's bed, and said, â€Å"Bullets won't stop him.† â€Å"What?† Blaise looked up from creaming her elbows. â€Å"I mean, spells won't stop him. Eric. They just bounce off. I'm telling you this because you're going to notice that he's not with Mar.† Blaise snapped the tube of cream shut. She stared at Thea for a full minute before she said tightly, â€Å"What are you saying?† Thea's humor drained away. She looked at the floor. â€Å"I'm saying we're soulmates,† she said quietly. â€Å"And that I can't help it. There is really, truly, nothing I can do about it.† â€Å"I can't believe, after all that-† â€Å"Right. After all that work. And after me trying and trying to stop, because I'm scared to death. But there's no way to fight it, Blaise. That's what I'm trying to tell you. I've got to find some way to try to live with it.† She looked at her cousin. â€Å"Okay?† â€Å"You know it's not okay. You know it's completely not okay.† â€Å"I guess what I mean is, okay, will you please not kill him or turn us in? Because I can't stand being in another fight with you. And I can't stop breaking the law.† Blaise tossed the cream jar in the direction of the dresser. â€Å"Thea, are you all right?† she said, seriously. â€Å"Because you're acting very†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Fatalistic?† â€Å"Fatalistic and generally scary.† â€Å"I'm okay. I just†¦ I don't know what's going to happen, but I am sort of†¦ calm. I'm going to do my best. Eric's going to do his best. And beyond that, nothing's guaranteed.† Blaise stared for another minute, her gray eyes searching Thea's face. Then she shook her head. â€Å"I won't turn you in. You know I would never turn you in. We're sisters. And as for trying to kill him†¦Ã¢â‚¬  She shrugged, looking grim. â€Å"It probably wouldn't work. That guy is impossible.† â€Å"Thank you, Blaise.† Thea touched her cousin's arm lightly. Blaise covered Thea's hand with her own red-nailed fingers, just for a moment. Then she sat back and straightened her pillows with a little jerk. â€Å"Just don't tell me anything, all right? I wash my hands of you two and I don't want to know what's going on. Besides, I've got worries of my own. I have to decide between a Maserati and a Karmann Ghia.† Halloween. Thea looked out the window at the darkened world. There weren't any kids in the alley, but she knew they were flitting around the city. Goblins and ghosts and witches and vampires-all fakes. Real vampires were sitting inside at fireplaces, or maybe at exclusive parties, chuckling. And real witches were getting dressed for their Samhain Circles. Thea put on a white shift, sleeveless, made out of one piece of material. She pulled a soft white belt around her waist and made a loop pointing up with one side of the tie, then wrapped the other end around the base of the loop three times. A thet knot. Witches had used them for four thousand years. She took a breath and looked outside again. Enjoy the peace while you can, she told herself. It's going to be a busy night. Eric's jeep pulled into the alley. The horn honked once. Thea grabbed the backpack, which had been stuffed under her bed. It was full of materials. Oak, ash, quassia chips, blessed thistle, mandrake root. The hardened residue from the bronze bowl, which she had painstakingly scraped off with one of Blaise's art knives. A wooden seal, also carved with Blaise's tools. And an ounce vial with three precious drops of summoning potion stolen from the malachite bottle. She started for the stairs. â€Å"Hey, are you leaving already?† Blaise said, emerging from the bathroom. â€Å"You've got-what?-an hour and a half before Circle.† Blaise looked gorgeous, and more herself than at any other time of year. Her shift was black, also sleeveless, also made in one piece. Her hair hung loose to her hips, woven with little bells. Her arms were pale and beautiful against the darkness of hair and shift, and she was barefoot, wearing one ankle bracelet. â€Å"I'm going to run out and do something before Circle,† Thea said. â€Å"Don't ask me what.† Blaise of course didn't know what Thea and Eric were planning. Not even Dani knew. It was better that way. â€Å"Thea†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Blaise stood at the top of the stairs and looked down as Thea dashed out. â€Å"You be careful!† Thea waved at her cousin. The back of the jeep was full of wood. â€Å"I thought I'd better bring some more, just in case we need it,† Eric said, throwing her backpack in. Then he added in a different voice, â€Å"You look- amazing-like that.† She smiled at him. â€Å"Thanks. It's traditional. You look nice, too.† He was wearing the costume of a seventeenth-century French soldier at Ronchain-or as close as they could get from looking at woodcuts in old books. They drove into the desert, past the huge bare cliffs, off the main road and far out among the Joshua trees, until they found the place. It was tiny, just a dip in the ground almost enclosed in red sandstone pillars. The pillars didn't look like the monoliths at Stonehenge-they were knobby and squished sideways, like towers of Play-doh that some kid had smashed-but they served the same purpose. They'd found this place all by themselves, and Thea was very proud of it. â€Å"The fire's still going,† she said. â€Å"That's good.† It had been burning for the last three days inside the circle. Thea's hope had been that it would keep Suzanne interested-and away from the people setting up in the old gym. And it seemed to have worked. Not just the fire, of course. The three dummies lying on the ground tied to stakes were supposed to be interesting, too. â€Å"These guys all look okay,† Eric said. He picked up the smallest dummy and dusted it off. It looked something like a scarecrow when he thrust the stick into a hole in the ground, standing it up. A scarecrow dressed in a black shift tied with a thet knot. With a sign hanging around the neck: lucienne. The other small dummy had a sign that said clement. The big dummy's sign said suzannb. â€Å"Okay,† Thea said when they had unloaded the wood, leaving her backpack in the jeep. â€Å"Now, remember, you don't do anything until I get back, right? Not anything. And if I'm a few minutes late, you just wait.† He stopped nodding. â€Å"The Halloween party starts at nine. If you're not here at nine exactly, I might-â€Å" â€Å"No. Don't touch anything, don't do anything.† â€Å"Thea, we might lose her. What if she decides that nothing's happening here, so she might as well go to the party-â€Å" â€Å"I won't be late,† Thea said flatly. It seemed the only way to win the argument. â€Å"But do not burn those witches before I'm here to cast the cirde. Okay?† â€Å"Good luck,† he said. He looked handsome and mysterious in his exotic clothes. Not like himself. They kissed under the half-full moon. â€Å"Be safe,† Thea whispered, making herself let go of him. â€Å"Come back safe,† he whispered. â€Å"I love you.† She drove the jeep back to the city, to the maidens' Circle Twilight meeting. It was being held this year at a Night World dub on the southern edge of town. There was no sign on the door, but the doormat, between two grinning jack-o'-lanterns, had been painted with a black dahlia. Thea knocked and the door opened. â€Å"Dani You look great.† â€Å"So do you,† Dani said. She was dressed in white, in a pleated sheer gown that hung to her ankles and looked Egyptian. Black braids clasped with silver cascaded from a sort of crown at her head, falling over her shoulders and back and arms. She made a beautiful Queen Isis. â€Å"You didn't wear a costume,† she said, making it a question. â€Å"Blaise and I are sort of going as Maya and Hell-wise,† Thea said. The truth was that she was most comfortable in her ordinary Circle clothes, and that Blaise knew she looked best in hers. â€Å"Well, come on down. You're the last one,† Dani said, taking Thea's hand. They went down a flight of stairs to an underground room. It had a makeshift, thrown-together look, with crates to sit on, and white fairy lights strung between concrete pillars. Metal chairs had been pushed to the periphery. â€Å"Thea! Hey, there! Merry meet!† people called. Thea turned around and around, smiling and getting hugs. â€Å"Good Samhain,† she kept saying. â€Å"Unity.† For those few minutes, she forgot about what was going to happen tonight. It was so good to see them all again, all her friends from summer Circles. Kishi Hirata, dressed as Amaterasu, the Japanese sun goddess, hi gold and orange. Alaric Breedlove- the sophomore from Lake Mead High-as Tammuz the shepherd, son of the mother goddess Ishtar. Claire Blessingway as the Navajo goddess Changing Woman, in a dress decorated with red flower petals and turquoise. Nathaniel Long as Herne, Celtic god of the hunt, in forest green, with stag's antlers. Humans put on costumes to disguise themselves tonight. Witches put on costumes to try to reflect their inner selves-what they were inside, what they wanted to be. â€Å"Here, taste,† Claire said, handing Thea a paper cup. It was full of a thick red herb drink spiced with cinnamon and cloves. â€Å"It's hibiscus-my dad's recipe.† Someone else was passing around shortbread cakes in the shape of crescent moons. Thea took one. Everything here was so bright, so warm-and she would have been so happy if all she had to do tonight was enjoy it. Have a normal Samhain Circle. Celebrate†¦ But Eric was waiting out there in the dark and cold of the desert. And Thea was counting the minutes until she could leave. â€Å"Okay, people, it's time to get started.† Lawai'a Dcua, a pretty, sturdy girl with hair like black nylon, was standing in the center of the room. She was wearing a red shift and lei-Pele, the Hawaiian fire goddess, Thea guessed. â€Å"Let's get our circle, here. That's good, come on. Chang Xi, you're the youngest now.† A little girl with big almond-shaped eyes came shyly into the ring of people. Thea hadn't seen her before- she must have turned seven since the last summer Circle. She was dressed in jade green as Kuan Yin, the Chinese goddess of compassion. Still shy, she took a sprig of broom-real broom, the plant-and swept the area inside the ring. â€Å"Thea, you do the salt.† Thea was surprised and pleased. She took the bowl of sea salt that Lawai'a offered, and walked slowly around the perimeter of the circle, sprinkling it â€Å"Alaric, you take the water-â€Å" Lawai'a broke oft looking toward the stairway, seeming startled. Thea saw other people look. She turned around. Two adults, mothers, were coming down the stairs. As the light shone on the first woman's face, Thea felt a jolt. It was Aunt Ursula. In a gray suit, her expression as bleak as Thea had ever seen it. Nobody in the room made a noise. They all stood still as Joshua trees, watching until the women reached the bottom. Interrupting a Circle in the middle of casting was unheard of. â€Å"Good Samhain,† Lawai'a said faintly. â€Å"Good Samhain.† Aunt Ursula was polite, but she didn't smile. like a displeased teacher. â€Å"I'm very sorry to bother you, but this will only take a minute.† Thea's heart had begun to pound, slow and hard. It's just guilty conscience, she tried to tell herself. This doesn't have to be about you. But it did. And something inside her knew even before Aunt Ursula looked the Circle over and said, â€Å"Thea Sophia Harman.† As if she doesn't know what I look like, Thea thought dazedly. She damped down hard on a wild impulse simply to brush past Aunt Ursula and head for the street. Now she knew why rabbits were so stupid as to leave a good hiding place and run blindly when a dog came near. Just panic, that's all. She stepped away from a staring Kishi on her left and a dismayed Nat on her right. She could feel every pair of eyes in the place on her. â€Å"What is it?† she said, trying to look surprised. Aunt Ursula's eyes met hers directly, as if to say, You know. But she didn't say anything, which was almost as bad. â€Å"Dani Naete Mella Abforth.† Oh, Eileithyia. Not Dani, too†¦. Dani was stepping out of the circle. Her small head was held proudly, but Thea could see the fear in her eyes. She walked, linen swaying around her ankles, to stand beside Thea. Dani, I'm sorry†¦. â€Å"That's all,† Aunt Ursula said. â€Å"The rest of you go on with your Circle. Good Samhain, everybody.† To Thea and Dani, she said, â€Å"You need to come outside.† They followed her silently. There was nothing else to do. When they were out in the cool night air, Dani said, â€Å"Is-something wrong?† She looked from Aunt Ursula to the other woman, who was short but had considerable presence. And seemed familiar to Thea†¦ and then she had it. It's Nana Buruku. From the Inner Circle. This isn't a Harman family matter. The Inner Circle itself is calling us. â€Å"There are some things we need to talk about. Come on and let's get it all cleared up fast,† Nana Buruku said quietly, putting a cinnamon-colored hand on Thea's arm. Gran's ancient Lincoln Continental was sitting at the curb. Nana Buruku took the wheel herself. Dani and Thea held hands in the backseat. Dani's fingers were icy cold. The car wound up and down streets lined with human trick-or-treaters, to a big ranch-style house with high block walls screening the backyard. Selene's house, Thea realized, seeing the name Lucna on the mailbox. It must be where they're having the maidens' Circle Midnight meeting. Aunt Ursula got out. Thea and Dani sat in the car with Nana Buruku. In a few minutes, Aunt Ursula came back with Blaise. Selene, dressed in silver, and Vivienne in black, followed as far as the driveway. They looked sober and scared, not like wicked witches at all. Blaise did. Barefoot and apparently indifferent to the cold, little bells ringing, she looked flushed and angry and proud. She opened the door with a jerk and sat down hard beside Thea, who scooted over. â€Å"What's going on?† she said, almost out loud. â€Å"I'm missing the moon cakes, I'm missing everything. What kind of Samhain is this?† Thea had never admired her more. â€Å"We'll get back in time,† Dani said, and her voice was steady, even if her fingers were still cold. They're both brave, Thea thought. And me? But however much she wanted to, she couldn't get a word out through the tightness in her throat. She half expected Nana Buruku to get on the freeway and head out toward the desert, toward Thierry's land. But instead the Lincoln headed down familiar streets and pulled up in the alley behind Grandma Harman's store. Thea could feel Dani's questioning eyes on her. But she had no idea what was going on, and she was afraid to look Dani in the face. â€Å"Come on,† Aunt Ursula said, and shepherded them through the back door, into the shop, through the bead curtain that led to the workshop. All the chairs for Gran's students had been pushed into a rough circle. People were sitting in them, or standing and talking quietly, but when Thea stepped through the curtain behind Nana Buruku, they all stopped and looked. Thea's eyes moved from face to face, seeing each in a sort of disconnected, dreamlike flash. Grandma Harman, looking so grim and tired. Mother Cybele, who was the Mother of the Inner Circle, just as Gran was the Crone, looking anxious. Aradia, the Maiden, her lovely face serious and sad. Others she recognized from two years ago, people who were so famous she knew them by their first names. Rhys, Belfana, Creon, Old Bob. Aunt Ursula and Nana Buruku made up the last two of the nine. They looked like ordinary people, working men and women and still-sharp-as-a-tack retired seniors, the kind you'd see any day on the street. They weren't. This was the biggest concentration of magical talent anywhere in the world. These people were the witch geniuses, the prodigies and the sages, the far-seers. The teachers, the policy-makers. They were the Inner Circle. And they were all looking at Thea. â€Å"The girls are here,† Mother Cybele said softly to Aradia. â€Å"They're standing in the middle.† Gran said, â€Å"All right, let's get this thing started. Will everybody find themselves a seat.† It wasn't a question, it was an order. Gran was senior to all these celebrities. But she wouldn't look at Thea. And that was the most terrible, nightmarish thing of all. She acted as if Thea and Blaise were strangers. Everyone was sitting, nudging their chairs into a more evenly spaced circle. They were all wearing their ordinary clothes, Thea realized: business suits or uniforms or pants and tops. In Aradia's case, jeans. In Old Bob's case, dirty overalls. Which means they never even started their own ceremony tonight. This is important enough to skip Samhain over. This is a trial. Red-haired Belfana pushed Creon's wheelchair to an empty spot. She was the last to sit down. I'm centered, Thea thought numbly. It was her worst fear, the very thing that had driven her away from Eric in the desert, the first time she'd felt the soulmate connection with him. And now it was true. She could hear Dani breathing irregularly, and the faint tinkle of bells as Blaise shifted from foot to foot. â€Å"All right,† Grandma Harman said, sounding tired but formal. â€Å"By Earth, by Air, by Water, and by Fire, I call this Circle to unity.† She went on, reciting the age-old formula for a meeting of deliberation. For Thea, the words blended into the pounding of blood in her ears. It was strange, how terrifying it could be to be surrounded in all directions by people. Everywhere she looked, another grave, unreadable face. She felt as trapped as if they had been humans. â€Å"Thea Sophia Harman,† Gran said, and suddenly Thea was listening again. â€Å"You stand accused†¦Ã¢â‚¬  There seemed to be an endless, empty pause, although Thea knew it was probably no time at all. â€Å"†¦ of working forbidden spells in direct disobedience to the laws of Hellewise and of this Circle†¦.† All Thea heard for a while was â€Å"working forbidden spells.† It seemed to hang in the air, echoing. Part of her kept waiting to hear the other, more terrible charges of betraying the secrets of the Night World and falling in love with a human. But they didn't come. â€Å"†¦ summoning a spirit from the far places beyond the veil†¦ binding two humans with a forbidden love charm†¦Ã¢â‚¬  And then Gran was reading Blaise's name. Blaise was charged with fashioning a necklace out of forbidden materials and binding humans with a forbidden charm. Dani was charged with aiding and abetting Thea in the summoning of a spirit from the far places-which was wrong, of course, Thea thought dizzily. Her whole body was tingling, from the soles of her feet, to her palms, to her scalp. With fear†¦ and with something like relief. They don't know. They don't know the worst part of it, or they would have said so-wouldn't they? And if I just keep quiet, why should they ever know? Then she focused on Gran, who had finished reading the charges and was now talking in an ordinary voice again. â€Å"And I have to say that I'm disappointed in all three of you. Especially you, Thea. I'd expect this from her, of course†-she nodded at Blaise, speaking to the rest of the Circle-â€Å"that descendant of mine there who's dressed up like Hecate's bad daughter. But I honestly thought Thea had more sense.† She looked disappointed. And that-hurt. Thea had always been the good girl, the golden girl, youngest and most promising of the Hearth-Woman line. Now, as she looked from face to face, she saw disappointment everywhere. I've failed them; I've disgraced my heritage. I'm so ashamed†¦. She wanted to curl up and disappear. Just then, there was a silvery ripple of bells. Blaise was tossing her dark head. She looked defiant and scornful and very proud and a little bored. â€Å"What I want to know is who turned us in,† she said in an almost inaudible but definitely menacing whisper. â€Å"Whoever it is, they're going to be sorry.† And suddenly, somehow, Thea was less frightened. The disappointment didn't mean so much. It was possible to shock the Inner Circle and still be standing up. Blaise proved it. It was then that irony struck Thea. She'd spent her life getting in trouble because of Blaise, and now here they were, in the worst trouble imaginable-because of her. And Dani was in trouble, too. Her velvety eyes were filled with tears. When she saw that, Thea found the tightness in her throat easing. She could talk again. â€Å"Look-excuse me-but there's something you need to know. Before this goes any further-â€Å" â€Å"You'll have a chance to speak later,† Mother Cybele said, her voice soft and firm, like her little dumpling-shaped body. â€Å"No, I have to say it now.† Thea turned to Gran, speaking, for just these few seconds, to her grandmother rather than to the Crone of the Inner Circle. â€Å"Grandma, Dani shouldn't be here. Really. Really. She didn't know anything about the summoning; I did it all. I promise.† Gran's expression gentled slightly, the creases on her face shifting. Then she was impassive again. â€Å"All right, all right, we'll see about that later. The first thing is to find out just what you've been doing. Since you seem to be the instigator here.† It was when she said â€Å"later† that realization hit Thea like a tsunami. And everything changed. Later†¦ time†¦ what time is it? She looked frantically around for the clock. There-behind Old Bob's gray head†¦ Ten minutes to ten. Eric. Somehow, in the stress she'd felt since Aunt Ursula came to get her, she had completely forgotten that he was waiting in the desert. But now she could see him, the vision in her mind's eye as clear as if she were standing there with him. Eric watching the clock, minutes going by, and Thea still not arriving. Eric looking at the bonfire and at the three black-clothed dummies tied to their stakes. And the party. The Halloween party at school. Blistered metal doors being opened and people flooding in. Shoes walking across the scuffed wooden floor, costumed kids standing underneath the dangling witch figures. Kids shrieking with laughter, handing over goblin money, crowding into the torture booths. While something lurked around the exposed pipes on the ceiling. Maybe invisible, maybe looking like a white figure and feeling like a blast of arctic wind. Maybe like a woman with long mahogany hair. Lurking†¦ then suddenly sweeping down†¦ She's going to kill them. They're completely defenseless†¦. Fear tore into Thea like jagged metal. It was all happening right now, and she wasn't doing anything to stop it. It had been happening for almost an hour, and she hadn't even given it a thought.